Regional CO 2 Emission Reductions and Air‐Quality Implications of Carbon Capture in Energy and Hard‐to‐Abate Sectors

ABSTRACT Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from energy and industrial activities, but its regional air quality and health implications depend on the capture technology, transport configuration, and associated energy requirements. This study assessed six CCS configurations in the Po Valley, Northern Italy, using the MAQ integrated assessment model. Monoethanolamine‐based post‐combustion capture was applied to natural gas (NG) combustion activities in the energy sector (MS1) at 60%, 85%, and 90% CO 2 removal rates. Oxy‐fuel combustion was applied to NG industrial furnaces in the industrial combustion sector (MS3) and kept constant across scenarios. Captured CO 2 from MS1 was transported either by road tankers or pipeline, whereas the MS3 CO 2 stream was assumed to be transported by pipeline. Gross CO 2 captured, transported, and stored ranged from 121.952 to 127.946 MtCO 2 /year. After accounting for road‐transport emissions, CO 2 conditioning, and electricity demand for oxygen production, net CO 2 reductions ranged from 105.744 MtCO 2 /year for Truck‐60 to 111.925 MtCO 2 /year for Pipeline‐90. Pipeline transport provided a higher net CO 2 reduction than tanker transport at the same capture rate. All scenarios reduced domain‐average PM2.5 and NO 2 concentrations relative to the CLE2020 baseline. Mean cell‐level reductions ranged from 0.063 to 0.075 µg/m 3 for PM2.5 and from 0.234 to 0.293 µg/m 3 for NO 2 , with statistically significant differences after false‐discovery‐rate correction. Estimated avoided attributable deaths ranged from 162 to 186 deaths/year for PM2.5 and from 175 to 215 deaths/year for NO 2 . Pipeline configurations achieved the greatest air‐quality and health benefits because they avoided additional road‐transport emissions. These findings show that CCS can provide substantial net climate mitigation and modest local air‐quality co‐benefits, provided that the full energy and transport chain is explicitly accounted for.