Pre-registered prediction for DESI DR3: the toll model with n = 3 and λ = 1/4 fixed

A pre-registered prediction, recorded on 5 November 2026 before the release of DESI DR3. The companion paper, "Dark energy as a lagged response to black-hole horizon entropy," models dark energy as a vacuum energy that relaxes toward a holographic target set by black-hole horizon entropy. This note fixes both remaining freedoms (relaxation rate n = 3 and coupling λ = 1/4), leaving no free dark-energy parameters and the same parameter count as ΛCDM, and freezes the analysis code by SHA-256 hash. It records the resulting predictions: w0 ≈ −0.87, a phantom crossing near z ≈ 0.56, CPL projection (w0, wa) ≈ (−0.78, −0.73), and the full w(z) curve to z = 2.5. Four tests against DESI DR3 BAO, Planck CMB likelihoods and three supernova samples are stated in advance, with explicit failure criteria. Results will be reported whichever way they go.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23990777
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
preprint
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preprint

Pre-registered prediction for DESI DR3: the toll model with n = 3 and λ = 1/4 fixed

Joseph Kugelmass
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
preprint

Pre-registered prediction for DESI DR3: the toll model with n = 3 and λ = 1/4 fixed

Joseph Kugelmass
preprint en

Abstract

A pre-registered prediction, recorded on 5 November 2026 before the release of DESI DR3. The companion paper, "Dark energy as a lagged response to black-hole horizon entropy," models dark energy as a vacuum energy that relaxes toward a holographic target set by black-hole horizon entropy. This note fixes both remaining freedoms (relaxation rate n = 3 and coupling λ = 1/4), leaving no free dark-energy parameters and the same parameter count as ΛCDM, and freezes the analysis code by SHA-256 hash. It records the resulting predictions: w0 ≈ −0.87, a phantom crossing near z ≈ 0.56, CPL projection (w0, wa) ≈ (−0.78, −0.73), and the full w(z) curve to z = 2.5. Four tests against DESI DR3 BAO, Planck CMB likelihoods and three supernova samples are stated in advance, with explicit failure criteria. Results will be reported whichever way they go.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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