Middle East war-driven energy supply disruptions could influence air pollution in India and China

Abstract Rapid economic growth has increased energy demand to ~ 11,000 TWh in India and ~ 50,000 TWh in China, where coal accounts for 57.5% and 54.79% of total energy consumption, respectively. Both countries also depend strongly on imported oil, with ~ 45% of India’s and ~ 54% of China’s crude-oil imports originating from the Middle East, creating vulnerability to geopolitical energy-supply disruptions. Here, we investigate whether such disruptions could influence regional air pollution by integrating energy data, sector-resolved emissions, GEOS-Chem simulations, and satellite observations. CEDS indicates SO 2 emissions of ~ 9.15 Mt yr −1 in India and ~ 10.61 Mt yr −1 in China, while GEOS-Chem simulations indicate considerable power-sector contributions to aerosol loading over major energy-producing regions. TROPOMI observations show SO 2 column enhancements of up to ~ 0.6–0.8 DU during the conflict period relative to the corresponding non-conflict reference period. Sulfate constitutes ~ 48% and ~ 42% of aerosol loading over India and China, respectively. However, these SO 2 enhancements cannot be uniquely attributed to increased coal combustion or the Middle East conflict because contemporaneous coal-generation changes were not quantified and atmospheric SO 2 is influenced by multiple emission sources and meteorological processes. The combined evidence therefore identifies a physically plausible pathway through which war-driven geopolitical energy-supply disruptions could influence regional air pollution in India and China.