A literature review of the regional and site-specific variability of wildfire risk: providing a methodological approach to assess the implications of climate change

Abstract Although the characteristics of a region or site can have a large effect on the implications of climate change on wildfire risk, the associated causal relationships are poorly understood. This article reviews 424 studies to identify the environmental factors that mediate and moderate the relationship between climate change and wildfire risk, gathering the associated evidence from the perspective of regional and site-specific variability. Based on the review results, the study contributes a set of qualitative questions that provide a methodological basis for assessing the impact of climate change on wildfire risk at regional and site-specific scales, and a synthesis applying the questions to Sweden as an example region. This reveals feedback loops, in which fire activity alters the environmental and societal conditions that govern subsequent risk, that are difficult to capture in quantitative models but are essential for understanding real-world outcomes. For Sweden, this implies the need to further study the non-coastal parts of the predominantly rural counties in the northwest. For studies of regional environmental change, the questions and the synthesis reveal both the value and a method for allowing a diverse set of disciplinary experts to cooperate when conducting region or site-specific assessment of future wildfire risk, while considering both social and natural phenomena.