Model Sistem Pendukung Keputusan untuk Penilaian Risiko Stunting pada Balita Menggunakan Certainty Factor Berbasis Bukti: Studi Pembuktian Konsep

Childhood stunting is multifactorial, and its risk assessment often involves interdependent evidence. This study developed a proof-of-concept decision support model based on the Certainty Factor (CF) method using literature-derived evidence weights. Fifteen risk factors were curated from 22 District Health Office indicators. Odds ratios were transformed into attributable fractions and mapped to provisional evidence weights using explicit rounding, capping, and attenuation rules. To reduce double counting, the hierarchical CF model groups the factors into seven clusters and applies a within-cluster correlation factor (β) alongside a mediation factor (α) for selected upstream clusters. The web prototype was computationally trace-tested using five stunting cases, which were not used for clinical or diagnostic validation. Under the baseline parameter setting, hierarchical CF values were 0.027–0.113 lower than classical CF values, and sensitivity analysis across scenarios ranging from strong to no correction showed no category changes across the five traces. The prototype accurately reproduced manual calculations and preserved factor-level traceability. Expert elicitation, threshold calibration, and diagnostic evaluation using representative case-control data remain necessary before field implementation.