Flash flood resilience in rural communities of the Sylhet Basin Region, Bangladesh

Flash floods present a recurrent and severe hydrometeorological threat to the Sylhet Basin of Bangladesh, severely compromising rural livelihoods, ecosystem integrity, and physical infrastructure. This study presents a diagnostic evaluation of community resilience across four representative unions ( Sukhair , Sachna Bazar , Raniganj , and Jagadal ) using an integrated Rural Resilience Index (RRI) framework to assess baseline conditions (2025) and prospective trajectories (2030). Utilizing a mixed-methods empirical approach combining 383 household surveys, 10 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), and spatial analysis, resilience was systematically quantified across five dimensions: physical, social, economic, institutional, and environmental. One-way ANOVA demonstrated statistically significant baseline spatial disparities across the unions ( F (3, 379) = 14.82, p < 0.001). While Jagadal exhibited relatively higher baseline resilience (Observed RRI = 1.93) due to superior physical infrastructure and social capital, deep-haor unions like Sukhair (RRI = 1.36) and Sachna Bazar (RRI = 1.31) suffered from severe structural vulnerabilities, driven by seasonal submergence, mono-crop Boro dependence, and weak institutional governance (scores ranging from 1.07 to 1.13). Prospective 2030 projections highlight diverging pathways: Sachna Bazar transitions into moderate resilience (RRI = 2.09) through non-farm economic diversification, whereas Sukhair remains locked in low resilience (RRI = 1.61) due to persistent infrastructural and governance deficits. Qualitative findings from KIIs confirm that households heavily depend on informal social capital and local coping strategies to buffer formal disaster management shortfalls. The study aligns its empirical insights with strategic policy mandates, including the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100, Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD 2019), and the Sendai Framework. Ultimately, this research offers a robust, scalable diagnostic framework for disaster risk governance across flood-prone deltaic and riverine regions globally.