Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Service Losses Caused by Wildfires: The Case of Natura 2000 Sites in Italy

Wildfires are a key ecological factor shaping many of the world’s ecosystems, including Mediterranean ones. However, recent shifts in fire regimes driven by a combination of climate change, demographic and socioeconomic factors are increasing the risk of high-severity wildfires, posing severe threats to protected areas, including Natura 2000 sites. In Italy, one of the world’s biodiversity hotspots, these challenges are particularly relevant. We used spatial data to analyze wildfire trends in Italy between 2008 and 2023, with a focus on Natura 2000 sites. We also assessed the economic impacts associated with them through a benefit transfer exercise. Natura 2000 sites account for approximately 30% of the total burned area recorded in Italy over the study period, corresponding to estimated economic losses of ecosystem services foregone ranging from €135.14 million to €186.45 million (i.e., €8.4–11.6 million year−1). At the sub-national scale, these losses may amount to nearly 40% of annual operating expenditures for Natura 2000 management in fire-prone regions like Sicily, highlighting the substantial financial implications of wildfire occurrence in protected areas. Findings can inform future management and policymaking choices in the context of ongoing conservation challenges and the nature restoration targets set by both European and national policies.