Where Trafficking Persists

The United States is the largest source of firearms recovered from criminal activities across Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean (LAC), yet little is empirically known or studied about the domestic locations from which these weapons originate. This study is exploratory in nature and examines whether U.S.–LAC firearms trafficking is spatially concentrated and temporally persistent at the census tract level. Using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) firearm trace data obtained through Freedom of Information Act requests, the analysis includes 47,681 firearms traced from ten LAC countries to U.S. retail purchases between 2015 and 2022. Firearm traces were converted from ZIP codes to census tracts across five U.S. states (Arizona, California, Florida, New Mexico, and Texas). Descriptive analyses show substantial spatial concentration, with approximately 2% of census tracts accounting for 25% of all traced firearms and 7.80% of tracts accounted for 50% of all traces. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) identified three distinct longitudinal patterns of trace activity. Multinomial logistic regression on trajectory class membership indicated that trajectory membership in the highest activity class was associated with greater levels of concentrated disadvantage, weaker state gun laws, higher densities of federal firearms licensees (FFLs), and closer proximity (in miles) to the U.S. southern land border. Together, these findings demonstrate that U.S.–LAC firearm trafficking originates disproportionately from a limited number of structurally vulnerable and strategically located domestic places.