Development of a Mechanism for the Transition of the Regional Economic System to a Circular Economy

Purpose. To provide a statistical justification for differentiated circular economy transition strategies across Russian regions and to develop a mechanism linking the territorial profile of a region to the selection of a management strategy, priority measures, and project selection criteria. Materials and methods. The empirical dataset covers 85 regions of the Russian Federation and includes comparable data for 2021 2023. The study draws on official statistics from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System. The A–G typology was constructed before the environmental and energy characteristics were calculated and was used as an external stratification framework. Medians and structural shares were calculated, together with Spearman’s rank and Pearson’s correlation coefficients. Differences in energy-related indexes were tested using the Kruskal–Wallis test and effect-size measures. The methodological framework of the mechanism comprises four components: the integral readiness R, the weakest mandatory block B, the potential effect P, and the data quality D. Unavailable direct indexes of the final use of secondary resources were not replaced with assumed values. Results. The median environmental stress index across the seven types of regional economic systems ranges from 0.365 to 0.562, while median air pollutant emissions from stationary sources ranges from 17.9 to 374.1 kg per capita. Types B and D, comprising 26 of the 85 regions, account for 66.2% of the emissions recorded in the sample and 60.4% of environmental protection expenditure. The correlation of emissions and expenditure is ρ = 0.854 according to Spearman’s coefficient and r = 0.844 according to Pearson’s coefficient; for the specific values ρ = 0.851 (p < 0.001). Type differences in specific installed capacity and power generation are statistically significant (p ≈ 0.001–0.002; η[2] = 0.169 and 0.135). Four transition strategies and five project control parameters are proposed. The empirical findings support the need for differentiated regional strategies but do not replace a subsequent comprehensive assessment of R, B, P, and D for all regions. Conclusions. The developed mechanism allows, based on the diagnostics of the regional economic system, to select a strategy for the transition to the circular economy and determine the sequence of its implementation. The strategy is selected with regard to the region’s overall readiness, critical constraints, expected effects, and the quality of the underlying data. The identified constraints determine the content of priority measures, while insufficient reliable information requires a preliminary stage of data collection and validation before investment decisions are made .