Gross recovered-output value and illustrative demand-activation scenarios for reducing soybean and maize losses in Brazil through intersectoral linkages

Abstract Reducing post-harvest losses increases marketable grain without constituting a new round of cultivation. This study estimates the gross monetary value of potentially recovered soybean and maize output in Brazil and uses an input-output model only as an illustrative demand-activation exercise. Using 2022 FAOSTAT data, Brazil is benchmarked against 11 leading producers under arithmetic-mean, production-weighted, median, and best-performer definitions. Under the arithmetic-mean benchmark, potentially recovered output is approximately 7.0 million tonnes of maize and 5.6 million tonnes of soybean, valued at BRL 8.94 billion and BRL 15.31 billion, respectively, in 2022 prices. After deflation to 2018 prices, the combined gross recovered-output value is BRL 13.35 billion. If 100% of this value were additionally absorbed at unchanged prices and activated a conventional agricultural Type I demand response, the illustrative full-activation, unchanged-price scenario result would be BRL 22.97 billion in total output, including BRL 9.63 billion of indirect output, BRL 10.33 billion in value added, BRL 2.59 billion in employee remuneration, and BRL 1.13 billion in indirect taxes. At 50% and 75% absorption, total output is BRL 11.49 billion and BRL 17.23 billion. Alternative benchmarks preserve the qualitative finding of a sizeable recoverable-value gap but materially change its magnitude. The input-output results are not causal estimates of loss reduction, welfare gains, or investment returns, and the price-retention cases are uncalibrated stress tests rather than market-equilibrium simulations.