Regional Export Complexity in Lithuania: County-Level Evidence from Origin-Based Trade Data, 2005–2024

Export complexity is usually measured for whole countries, although the capabilities behind complex exports are unevenly distributed within them. This study measures the export-weighted product complexity of Lithuania’s ten counties annually over 2005–2024, combining Statistics Lithuania’s county statistics on exports of goods of Lithuanian origin (1201 four-digit products) with fixed Product Complexity Index values from the Atlas of Economic Complexity. Vilnius county ranks first and Telšiai county last in 2024 under every specification tested, including alternative complexity windows, a harmonised product universe and an Economic Fitness ranking. Vilnius moved from fifth place in 2005 to a lead of 0.36 index points over the second county in 2024; ten products, led by diagnostic reagents, account for three quarters of its 2005–2024 gain, and its 2021 peak reflects nucleic acid and reagent exports rather than commodity prices. The other nine counties became more alike, so overall dispersion changed little while the leading county pulled away. On the breadth-based fitness measure, Vilnius and Kaunas are almost level. Export value and complexity differ sharply: Telšiai, the largest exporter over the period, has the least complex and most concentrated basket.