Model of Population Administration Resilience Post-Mount Ruang Eruption in Siau Tagulandang Biaro Islands Regency

Background: Population administration is an essential public service that must remain operational when disasters disrupt population mobility, identity documents, communication networks, and access to services. Objective: This study examines the relationships between the intensity of disaster impacts, institutional capacity, digital infrastructure readiness, and population administration resilience following the eruption of Mount Ruang in Siau Tagulandang Biaro Islands Regency. Methods: An explanatory quantitative approach was employed involving 140 respondents from Siau, Tagulandang, and the Modisi Permanent Housing Settlement (Huntap Modisi). Data were collected using a 57-item Likert-scale questionnaire and analyzed using PLS-SEM through a reflective-formative hierarchical component model with a two-stage approach. Results: The model explained 38.4% of the variance in population administration resilience (Q²=0.345). Disaster impact intensity had a negative but insignificant effect (β=-0.231; p=0.073). Institutional capacity was the strongest significant predictor (β=0.445; p<0.001), followed by digital infrastructure readiness (β=0.251; p=0.012). The findings highlight that post-disaster resilience depends more on internal system capacities than disaster intensity, extending resilience research to population administration systems in island contexts. Conclusion: The findings imply that strengthening institutional capacity and digital infrastructure readiness should be positioned as key components of strategies to maintain service continuity and support the recovery of population administration services in disaster-prone island regions.