A time series analysis of climate trend and smallholder farmers' perceptions of Enset (Ensete ventricosum)- based diversified farming system in Central Ethiopia

Although Enset-based farming system is promoted as a sustainable land management strategy in Ethiopia, comprehensive studies integrating time-series climate analysis with farmer perceptions is limited. This study aimed to evaluate climate variablity impacts on the Enset-based farming system in Central Ethiopia, integrating time-series climate data with smallholder farmers' perceptions. Historical climatic data (1980–2024) on precipitation and temperature were sourced from 9 station meteorological observations, and the KNMI climate variablity atlas data were used for data quality control. The data analysis was conducted using the XLSTAT, SPSS (version 27). These data were combined with a survey of 400 households across three distinct farming systems: Enset-dominated, Enset with coffee, and Enset with coffee and fruit. The results reveal a statistically significant declining trend in annual rainfall and a significant decrease in precipitation during the critical Kiremt season (July–September). Concurrently, a significant warming trend was detected, particularly in rising minimum temperatures. These climatic shifts were perceived by the majority of farmers, with over 82% reporting increasing temperatures and over 79% observing decreasing rainfall. The Mann–Kendall test statistic (S) revealed a significant decreasing rainfall trend across most stations. The study also indicated that more complex, multi-strata systems (Enset with coffee and fruit) exhibited a more stable climate change compared to an enset-dominated system. The integration of empirical climate data and local knowledge underscores the severe threat climate change poses to this vital agricultural system. The findings highlight the urgency for developing targeted adaptation strategies to enhance resilience and ensure the food security of smallholder farmers dependent on Enset. Promoting diversified enset-based farming systems is a critical strategy for enhancing climate resilience in the region.