Potentially avoidable injury mortality and years of potential life lost through reduction of heavy episodic drinking in Chile

Abstract Background and aims Heavy episodic drinking (HED) is a major driver of alcohol‐attributable injuries; however, country‐specific estimates and avoidable burden remain scarce. Chile, which has one of the highest alcohol consumption rates in the Americas, has a substantial injury‐related mortality burden. We estimated the number of injury deaths and years of potential life lost (YPLL) that could potentially be avoided in Chile through reductions in HED. Design A modelling study using data from Chile's National Household Surveys on Drug Use (2012–2024) and national mortality records. We derived alcohol‐attributable fractions from international relative risk functions, adjusted for national per capita consumption, and combined them with Monte Carlo simulations to estimate uncertainty. Potential impact fractions were estimated for 10%, 20% and 30% reductions in HED prevalence. As a secondary analysis, we compared the estimated impact of reductions in HED prevalence with equivalent reductions in overall alcohol consumption volume. Setting Chile. Participants Population‐level data from adults aged between 15 and 65 years and all registered injury deaths [ International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems , tenth revision (ICD‐10) codes V01–Y89]. Measurements Annual numbers of alcohol‐attributable injury deaths and YPLL under observed and counterfactual HED prevalence scenarios. Results The majority (68%) of people declaring HED were men, who exhibited substantially higher alcohol‐attributable injury mortality and YPLL compared with women: median annual injury deaths of 1464 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 714–2237] for men vs. 252 (95% CI = 120–415) for women; median annual YPLL of 2360 (95% CI = 1151–3577) per 100 000 inhabitants for men vs. 372 (95% CI = 160–590) for women. Across scenarios, a 30% reduction in HED prevalence was associated with around 193 (95% CI = 103–272) deaths avoided annually and a marked decline in YPLL [3.3% (95% CI = 1.7–4.9) of all injury‐related YPLL], particularly among men. Younger adults showed the highest reductions, with a median of 62 (95% CI = 35–87) alcohol‐attributable injury deaths that could be avoided per year. The health gains associated with reductions in HED were markedly greater than those achieved through equivalent reductions in alcohol consumption volume. Summary In Chile, a 30% reduction in heavy episodic drinking could prevent about 190 injury deaths and 3.3% of injury‐related years of potential life lost annually, mostly among younger men. Targeting heavy drinking occasions may yield larger health gains than reducing average consumption.