Desempeño comparativo de Holt-Winters y Prophet en la predicción de la demanda eléctrica en sistemas de distribución y alumbrado público

Accurate electricity demand forecasting supports operational planning and energy-efficiency decisions in distribution systems. This study compares the additive Holt-Winters and Prophet models applied to public lighting demand in Cotopaxi, Ecuador, using an institutional inventory of 52,365 luminaires from 2012 to 2020. The inventory was transformed into a monthly theoretical energy series through data cleaning, calendar-based energy calculation and a dynamic replacement rule for the transition from mercury and sodium lamps to LED technology. The models were implemented in Python and evaluated with MAPE, RMSE and R². Holt-Winters obtained lower short-term error, whereas Prophet better represented the 2019 LED structural change; therefore, both models are useful for complementary operational and strategic planning.