Global energy transition: the role of hydrocarbons

This article examines the role of hydrocarbons in conditions of global energy transition against a backdrop of rising demand, geopolitical instability, sanctions, and accelerated development of the renewable energy sources. The author argues that the energy transition does not cancel out the strategic importance of fossil fuels, but rather alters the nature of competition by shifting the focus from physical volumes to logistics, technology chains, currency mechanisms, and the state’s ability to ensure long-term sustainability. A “balance-based realism” approach is proposed, in which decarbonization scenarios are correlated with actual balances and infrastructure costs. The value of the proposed approach lies in integration of the resource, technological, financial, and geopolitical analyses, while the global energy sector will maintain a mixed balance with hydrocarbons retaining their system-defining role. Russia’s strategic objective is to use its resource base to develop industrial processing and logistical alternatives, preventing ideologically driven energy transition scenarios from undermining the existing energy base.