Trends and Projections of Mood Disorder Burden in East Asia, 1990–2038: A Systematic Analysis Based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Mood disorders substantially contribute to non-fatal health loss, and COVID-19 may have altered their trends. Evidence for East Asia post-pandemic is limited. Using GBD 2023 data, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for bipolar disorder, dysthymia, and major depressive disorder (MDD) in five East Asian countries (1990–2023). We assessed age-standardized rates, age-sex patterns, decomposition analyses, SDI associations, and projected burden to 2038 with a Bayesian age–period–cohort model. In 2023, MDD posed the largest burden. From 1990–2023, MDD increased across all countries; bipolar disorder declined in Japan and Korea but rose elsewhere; dysthymia generally declined except in Mongolia. Females had higher MDD and dysthymia burden; bipolar disorder showed country-specific sex differences. Bipolar disorder and MDD generally peaked in adolescence (with notable country-specific exceptions in middle-aged and oldest-old populations), whereas dysthymia affected older ages. Population growth drove absolute increases; epidemiological changes fueled MDD growth. Projections indicate stable bipolar burden, rising dysthymia in China, Japan, and Korea, and mixed MDD trends with persistent sex gaps. Mood disorders remain a growing public health challenge in East Asia, with cross-country heterogeneity, female disadvantage, and age-specific risk peaks, highlighting the need for targeted, context-specific interventions.