EU Conditionality and Climate Governance in Montenegro: A Case Study of Environmental Policy Transformation

EU accession requires candidate countries to adapt environmental legislation and institutions, but the implications for implementation and environmental outcomes remain uneven. This article examines that relationship in Montenegro, using Slovenia and Croatia as historical reference cases around accession. Documentary analysis is combined with descriptive comparisons of municipal waste generation, recycling and greenhouse gas emissions excluding land use, land-use change and forestry. For Montenegro, Eurostat’s estimates indicate a 7.3% increase in municipal waste generation per capita between 2019 and 2024 and a decrease in the recycling rate from 5.3% to 3.6%. All observations in Montenegro’s selected municipal waste series are estimated, and the precision of these changes could not be established from the published series. Greenhouse gas emissions decreased by approximately 1.0% between 2019 and 2022, with a partial reversal in the final year. Slovenia and Croatia recorded higher recycling rates alongside rising waste generation, while their emissions changed in different directions during the respective observation periods. Documentary evidence for Montenegro identifies difficulties in separate collection, infrastructure operation and the application of local rules. The documentary findings identify specific implementation problems, but their contribution to national indicator changes and the independent effect of EU conditionality remain unestablished. The findings contribute to sustainability assessment by distinguishing between formal reform, policy implementation and environmental outcomes, with particular attention to how collection and recycling services function.