Determinants of Free Throw Performance: An Empirical Analysis of Game Context and Pressure

This paper analyzes the determinants of free-throw success using a panel data set of free throws taken from the years 2015-2016. Prior research has emphasized performance in high-pressure moments, while my study aims to evaluate a broader range of situational and contextual factors that influence free-throw outcomes. Specifically, I estimate the effect of time remaining, score margin, game period, home status, playoff intensity, shot order, and player-specific characteristics on the probability of a free throw. Additionally, a clutch indicator is included to assess whether performance systematically changes in highleverage situations, clutch being defined as the last five minutes of the fourth period. This paper evaluates whether contextual pressure meaningfully alters free-throw success once other game characteristics and player skill are controlled for. The results contribute to the literature on performance under pressure by assessing both general situational effects and the incremental impact of clutch conditions on shooting accuracy.