Empirical Research Paper: The Commodity Markets’ Role on Gross Domestic Product in the United States

This paper discusses whether the commodity market has descriptive information for short term Gross Domestic Product within the United States. Using quarterly Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), the model uses distributed log changes in commodity prices such as energy, food, and industrial inputs alongside logged and market-based expectations for GDP. The model evaluates how fluctuations in broad commodity markets (such as the Broad Commodity Index, Food Commodity Index, Metal Commodity Index, and Energy Commodity Index) influence GDP.