Florida Housing Markets Price Reversal: A Comparative Analysis of the Florida Insurance Crisis and Housing Market Decoupling (2022-2025)

This research investigates the 2022-2025 Insurance Crisis in Florida as a localized shock to the housing market. While national home prices typically track federal interest rate trends, this study utilizes a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework, using Georgia as a control benchmark, to quantify the extent to which skyrocketing property insurance premiums have decoupled Florida's home price appreciation from the national mortgage rate environment. The paper finds that despite the separation in premiums did not have a significant impact on the change in HPI in the Florida housing markets, but did represent a simmer risk. This paper also uses the key factors in the Florida housing market to attempt to predict the next five years of the FL HPI, and it does so using an Gradient Boost Regressor machine learning model.