One Swap, One Point Four Sigma: What the Supernova Compilation Choice Costs the Evolving Dark Energy Preference

Prices arXiv:2502.12667's evolving dark energy preference at its HTML full text. Swapping the DES supernova compilation for Pantheon+ costs 1.4 sigma (3.8 to 2.4) and divides the evidence odds by 43.8 (Delta log Z 5.43 to 1.65); the record's own decomposition assigns 59.7 percent of Delta chi-squared 29.8 to the swapped likelihood, and its quoted sigma is a posterior tail-fraction conversion below the naive root 5.46. The preference is conditional on the printed systematics assumption and its growth signature assumes General Relativity. The nearest house object is paper #603's joint-signal pricing, a different species. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23937048
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
preprint
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preprint

One Swap, One Point Four Sigma: What the Supernova Compilation Choice Costs the Evolving Dark Energy Preference

William Alexander Aldred
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
preprint

One Swap, One Point Four Sigma: What the Supernova Compilation Choice Costs the Evolving Dark Energy Preference

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

Prices arXiv:2502.12667's evolving dark energy preference at its HTML full text. Swapping the DES supernova compilation for Pantheon+ costs 1.4 sigma (3.8 to 2.4) and divides the evidence odds by 43.8 (Delta log Z 5.43 to 1.65); the record's own decomposition assigns 59.7 percent of Delta chi-squared 29.8 to the swapped likelihood, and its quoted sigma is a posterior tail-fraction conversion below the naive root 5.46. The preference is conditional on the printed systematics assumption and its growth signature assumes General Relativity. The nearest house object is paper #603's joint-signal pricing, a different species. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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