A Bayes Factor of 285, a Likelihood Ratio of 13: The Prior-Volume Share of the Shifted-Dipole Preference for PSR J0740+6620

A pricing of the evidence claim in Huang, Salmi and Chen's joint mass-radius and magnetic-geometry inference of PSR J0740+6620 (arXiv:2609.37928), computed from the record's own printed Table 4 and appendix. The record headlines the shifted dipole as decisively favored under the adopted priors, with delta ln Z = 5.654 +/- 0.177, a Bayes factor of about 285. Its own table prints the maximum log likelihoods, whose gap is delta ln L = 2.575, a likelihood ratio of 13.13; the remaining 3.079 of the headline, 54.5 percent, is the prior-volume and likelihood-shape term. The record's prior on the branch-normalization logarithm l_C was widened from an exploratory [-0.2, 0.2] to an adopted [-0.7, 1.7] after the exploratory posterior reached its boundary: a factor of six in width, asymmetric by a factor of ten in logarithmic room, whose largest single-parameter Occam lever, ln 6 = 1.792, is 10.1 times the quoted evidence error and 31.7 percent of the headline gap. The record's appendix model attains the highest maximum likelihood of the three and reaches the nominal footprint f_open = 1.002 at that point, yet is ranked last by the evidence. The mass-radius result itself is not priced. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23937116
Primary Topic
Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
Type
preprint
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preprint

A Bayes Factor of 285, a Likelihood Ratio of 13: The Prior-Volume Share of the Shifted-Dipole Preference for PSR J0740+6620

William Alexander Aldred
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
preprint

A Bayes Factor of 285, a Likelihood Ratio of 13: The Prior-Volume Share of the Shifted-Dipole Preference for PSR J0740+6620

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

A pricing of the evidence claim in Huang, Salmi and Chen's joint mass-radius and magnetic-geometry inference of PSR J0740+6620 (arXiv:2609.37928), computed from the record's own printed Table 4 and appendix. The record headlines the shifted dipole as decisively favored under the adopted priors, with delta ln Z = 5.654 +/- 0.177, a Bayes factor of about 285. Its own table prints the maximum log likelihoods, whose gap is delta ln L = 2.575, a likelihood ratio of 13.13; the remaining 3.079 of the headline, 54.5 percent, is the prior-volume and likelihood-shape term. The record's prior on the branch-normalization logarithm l_C was widened from an exploratory [-0.2, 0.2] to an adopted [-0.7, 1.7] after the exploratory posterior reached its boundary: a factor of six in width, asymmetric by a factor of ten in logarithmic room, whose largest single-parameter Occam lever, ln 6 = 1.792, is 10.1 times the quoted evidence error and 31.7 percent of the headline gap. The record's appendix model attains the highest maximum likelihood of the three and reaches the nominal footprint f_open = 1.002 at that point, yet is ranked last by the evidence. The mass-radius result itself is not priced. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Pulsars and Gravitational Waves Research
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