Explaining Growth in High Frequency Youth Offending: A Multi-Cohort Analysis of Offending Propensity and Criminogenic Exposure

Abstract Wikström and colleagues’ (2024) Developmental Ecological Action Model of Situational Action Theory provides a framework for understanding drivers of macro- or micro- level changes in offending behaviour, with offending propensity and criminogenic exposure proposed as two key drivers of change in crime involvement across time. This study examined the role of offending propensity and criminogenic exposure as potential drivers of recent increases in high frequency youth offending behaviour in Australia. The dataset comprisedlongitudinal youth justice data capturing risk assessments, proven offences, and custody periods for 12 consecutive adolescent birth cohorts, born between 1995 and 2006. YLS-CMI risk assessment data were used to measure offending propensity and criminogenic exposure. A balanced panel design, using annual observations from ages 14 to 16, generated 7,417 person observations, and 22,251 person-year observations. Random effects panel regression models were used to assess changes in offending propensity, criminogenic exposure and high frequency youth offending across birth cohorts. Results indicated that offending propensity and criminogenic exposure had increased significantly in recent birth cohorts of justice-involved adolescents, as had the odds of high frequency offending. However, growth in criminogenic exposure, and increases in the strength of its impact across birth cohorts, provided the strongest explanation for growth in high frequency youth offending in recent years. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.