Trustworthiness Viability of Closed-Loop Online Power-System Defense Under Evidence and Response-Time Constraints

Online power-system defense increasingly depends on automated assessment, strategy generation, and real-time implementation. However, the accuracy of a single model or controller does not establish the trustworthiness of the complete closed loop. This paper proposes a mission-level framework for closed-loop trustworthiness under physical, informational, and temporal uncertainty. Trustworthiness is defined as the lowest finite-horizon mission-success probability over all probability laws consistent with available evidence. The resulting trustworthiness viability domain contains the joint physical, evidence, dependence, and response-time states from which a required trustworthiness level remains achievable. A recursive characterization supports model-conditional certification and boundary warning. Additional evidence can reduce maintainable trustworthiness when its acquisition delay removes feasible recovery actions. Safe abnormality identifiability requires diagnostic actions to remain inside the viability domain, while a counterfactual deficit measure locates abnormalities with the largest mission-level effect. Conditions are also derived for heterogeneous redundancy and certified fallback. On a modified Reliability Test System–Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (RTS-GMLC) system, 14.3% of test states were physically secure but were not certified at the required trustworthiness level. Under the scenario-based model, 94.6% of abnormal cases met the 0.95 trustworthiness threshold with runtime selection. Texas2k tests quantified the accuracy–runtime tradeoff at a larger network scale.

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Publication Details

Journal
Modelling—International Open Access Journal of Modelling in Engineering Science
Published
2026-11-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/modelling7060245
Primary Topic
Smart Grid Security and Resilience
Type
article
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article

Trustworthiness Viability of Closed-Loop Online Power-System Defense Under Evidence and Response-Time Constraints

Lian Tu, Jinchang Chen, Wei Tai, Shiyang Li et al.
Modelling—International Open Access Journal of Modelling in Engineering Science
Smart Grid Security and Resilience
article

Trustworthiness Viability of Closed-Loop Online Power-System Defense Under Evidence and Response-Time Constraints

Lian Tu, Jinchang Chen, Wei Tai, Shiyang Li, Jianxin Zhang, Qi Wang
article en

Abstract

Online power-system defense increasingly depends on automated assessment, strategy generation, and real-time implementation. However, the accuracy of a single model or controller does not establish the trustworthiness of the complete closed loop. This paper proposes a mission-level framework for closed-loop trustworthiness under physical, informational, and temporal uncertainty. Trustworthiness is defined as the lowest finite-horizon mission-success probability over all probability laws consistent with available evidence. The resulting trustworthiness viability domain contains the joint physical, evidence, dependence, and response-time states from which a required trustworthiness level remains achievable. A recursive characterization supports model-conditional certification and boundary warning. Additional evidence can reduce maintainable trustworthiness when its acquisition delay removes feasible recovery actions. Safe abnormality identifiability requires diagnostic actions to remain inside the viability domain, while a counterfactual deficit measure locates abnormalities with the largest mission-level effect. Conditions are also derived for heterogeneous redundancy and certified fallback. On a modified Reliability Test System–Grid Modernization Lab Consortium (RTS-GMLC) system, 14.3% of test states were physically secure but were not certified at the required trustworthiness level. Under the scenario-based model, 94.6% of abnormal cases met the 0.95 trustworthiness threshold with runtime selection. Texas2k tests quantified the accuracy–runtime tradeoff at a larger network scale.

Modelling—International Open Access Journal of Modelling in Engineering ScienceVol. 7(6)
Guangdong Power Grid Company (China) (CN), China Southern Power Grid (China) (CN), Southeast University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 19%
Smart Grid Security and Resilience
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Trustworthiness Viability of Closed-Loop Online Power-System Defense Under Evidence and Response-Time Constraints — Lian Tu, Jinchang Chen, et al. · Modelling—International Open Access Journal of Modelling in Engineering Science (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS