Theoretical Analysis of Muon on Transformers for Next-Token Prediction

Muon has recently shown strong empirical performance in training Transformer-based large language models (LLMs), yet its optimization dynamics remain poorly understood from a theoretical perspective. In this paper, we analyze the training dynamics of Muon for next-token prediction (NTP) in Transformers. The training procedure consists of two phases: the preprocessing phase learns the output-value component, while the main phase learns the key-query component. For the preprocessing phase, we characterize the optimization trajectory exactly and show that the normalized spectral margin is optimal after each update. For the main phase, we establish nonasymptotic convergence rates for the training loss and the normalized margin gap under softmax attention. These results suggest that Muon's update rule can help models efficiently learn which tokens matter for prediction, offering a possible explanation for its strong performance in large language model training. The learned weight structure also yields a generalization guarantee for unseen contexts. Furthermore, we validate our theoretical insights with experiments on next-token prediction tasks.