Navigating local preferences and trade-offs for future land-use change in agriculturally productive landscapes

Global climate and biodiversity targets require changing land-use, yet how this is delivered within local contexts and demands remains contested. This paper examines local stakeholders’ future land-use priorities alongside their perceptions of socio-ecological drivers shaping land-use change within a highly productive agricultural landscape: the Fens, England. Comparisons across stakeholder groups reveal variation in values, priorities, and understandings of system change, including differential emphasis on national versus local governance. While food production remains a priority its association with wider socio-cultural values expands its role beyond production metrics. Ecosystem service trade-offs persist, highlighting limitations in single-objective land-use strategies and the need for place-sensitive approaches. Limited adaptive capacity within local communities, underscored by climate vulnerability, indices of deprivation and cultural inertia, poses a barrier to implementing local priorities. We conclude that effective delivery of global nature-climate targets requires an integrated, place-sensitive approach to better navigate potential experienced impacts of spatially allocated land-use change.