Retrospective Mapping of U.S. Population Allostatic Load, 2000–2026

This paper specifies, before any data are analyzed, how the Population Allostatic Load Index (PALI) will be evaluated against U.S. data from 2000 to 2026. It is a protocol, not a report of results. The evaluation tests six claims: that burden accumulates, that recovery capacity accounts for more variation in outcomes than compression, that PALI predicts independent outcomes beyond established measures, that population burden tracks measured biological allostatic load, that the model’s forward prediction for 2025–2026 holds, and that the rate at which compression changes predicts outcomes beyond its magnitude. The main tests use a state-level panel with held-out years and held-out states, because a single national time series cannot distinguish a working model from a coincidence. Five historical windows are described as illustrations, with an explicit note that they were chosen with knowledge of what happened. Each hypothesis is scored supported, disconfirmed or inconclusive by rules fixed here, and all results will be published whether they support the framework or not.