Modeling and simulation enabling concept development and experimentation applied to cognitive warfare concept validation

North Atlantic treaty organization (NATO) considers Cognitive Warfare to be deliberate, synchronized military and non-military activities throughout the continuum of competition designed to shape the Information Environment and affect audience attitudes, perceptions and behaviors to gain, maintain and protect cognitive superiority. A validation project, conducted with Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Modelling and Simulation, explored how modeling and simulation could enhance NATO’s capabilities in the cognitive domain, strengthen defense against cognitive warfare threats, and improve resilience to such activities, delivering an agent-based simulation system, built on human behavior models, that validated key Cognitive Warfare concept elements. This paper presents the project’s design, execution, findings, and resulting recommendations and lessons learned on applying Modeling and Simulation within concept development and experimentation (CD&E). Simulation results underscore the centrality of Training to operational readiness: robust training programs improve individual and group performance and support the Cognitive Warfare Concept’s Protect Supporting Idea. Motivation likewise had a marked positive effect on readiness and effectiveness; its interplay with Training emerged as a key determinant of Blue Force success, with compounded effects when combined. The main lessons learned from Modeling and Simulation employment in concept development are that, despite a recommended process, each concept’s unique nature means Modeling and Simulation use must be tailored to best fit the concept stakeholders’ needs.