Mexico’s Trade Dependency and Post-USMCA Diversification: An Analysis of Concentration and Gravity, 1993–2026

This study analyzes the actual economic consequences Mexico would face if it reduced its trade dependence on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement [USMCA]. Using a quantitative approach, it examines export flows by destination and sector between 1993 and 2024, drawing on data from the World Bank, INEGI, UN Comtrade, OECD-TiVA, and CEPII. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and Theil-T concentration indices, as well as a bilateral gravity model, are applied to estimate the intensity of Mexico’s trade with the United States and China. The results show that, while export concentration toward North America remains structurally dominant, the Mexico–U.S. gravity coefficient has declined steadily [from 365.9 in 1993 to 85.0 in 2024], indicating a phase of trade maturation rather than stagnation. At the same time, the relationship with China continues to exhibit low gravitational potential due to distance, industrial competition, and the lack of preferential agreements. Despite this, an incipient diversification toward the Asia-Pacific region and the European Union is identified, driven by Mexico’s accession to the CPTPP and the modernization of the Comprehensive Agreement with the EU. It is concluded that Mexico has the capacity to remain competitive and expand its markets if it implements policies focused on logistics innovation, extra-regional trade promotion, and the strengthening of domestic value added—conditions that are essential for transitioning to a model of diversified and sustainable interdependence.