Five Per Cent In, Six Per Cent Out: I Priced the Assumed Observational Error Beneath the 21 cm Forecast, and the Headline Precision Is the Assumption Read Back at One Redshift

Prices Queue-2 item Q2-21, arXiv:2509.05096 (Maity, emulator-based forecasting with 21 cm and density cross-correlations during EoR), on its verified abstract claim, the TSI store record, and the full text. The load-bearing assumed step is the 5% observational uncertainty combined with emulator error under a diagonal likelihood. On the paper's own Table 2: the <6% h headline is the half-width of a 95% interval 10.1% wide in full; doubling the assumed error widens h by only x1.57 because the emulator training scatter floors the budget, and the bias emulator that buys the sigma_8 claim is the weakest (R^2 = 0.92, used at 2 of 6 k bins); Omega_m is one-sided in all six columns; at Q_HI = 0.29 the h width grows x2.43 and sigma_8 collapses to one-sided. DERIVED-INDEPENDENT. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23937667
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
preprint
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preprint

Five Per Cent In, Six Per Cent Out: I Priced the Assumed Observational Error Beneath the 21 cm Forecast, and the Headline Precision Is the Assumption Read Back at One Redshift

William Alexander Aldred
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
preprint

Five Per Cent In, Six Per Cent Out: I Priced the Assumed Observational Error Beneath the 21 cm Forecast, and the Headline Precision Is the Assumption Read Back at One Redshift

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

Prices Queue-2 item Q2-21, arXiv:2509.05096 (Maity, emulator-based forecasting with 21 cm and density cross-correlations during EoR), on its verified abstract claim, the TSI store record, and the full text. The load-bearing assumed step is the 5% observational uncertainty combined with emulator error under a diagonal likelihood. On the paper's own Table 2: the <6% h headline is the half-width of a 95% interval 10.1% wide in full; doubling the assumed error widens h by only x1.57 because the emulator training scatter floors the budget, and the bias emulator that buys the sigma_8 claim is the weakest (R^2 = 0.92, used at 2 of 6 k bins); Omega_m is one-sided in all six columns; at Q_HI = 0.29 the h width grows x2.43 and sigma_8 collapses to one-sided. DERIVED-INDEPENDENT. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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