Three Metres: A Checkable Order-of-Magnitude Prediction for Wireless Power Transfer

中文标题：三米——一次可核查的数量级预测 本文记录一次量级层面的预测与第三方实测：2026 年 3 月作者公开判断手机无线充电的有效距离在"米级而非公里级"，无线供电研究者朱斯忠先生的装置实测有效范围为 2.6 米。文中给出结构性解释：传输要经过解锁—输运—锁定三步，锁定要求两端周期可公比；距离同时破坏两件事——相位失配（硬边界）与幅度衰减（软衰减）。材料损耗只作用于后者，故实测比理论短一截而不能短一个量级。文末给出一个成本极低的判别实验：换低损耗件、测多档损耗、把截止点外推到零损耗，看是否收敛到一个与材料无关的固定值。作者明确声明：量级吻合不构成证明。 English abstract: This note records an order-of-magnitude prediction and a third-party measurement. In March 2026 the author publicly stated that the effective range of wireless phone charging is of order metres rather than kilometres; a wireless-power researcher, Mr. Zhu Sizhong, reported a measured effective range of 2.6 m. A structural account is given: transfer proceeds as unlock - transport - lock, and locking requires the two ends to have commensurable periods. Distance damages two conditions separately: phase mismatch (a hard boundary) and amplitude decay (a soft falloff). Material loss acts only on the latter, which is why the measured range falls short by a fraction but not by an order of magnitude. A low-cost discriminating experiment is specified: vary loss across several hardware grades and extrapolate the cutoff to zero loss. The author states explicitly that an order-of-magnitude agreement is not a proof.