Regulatory Mapping and Exploratory Forecasting of Construction-Phase Compliance Risks in Low-Rise Residential Construction

Abstract Noncompliance with regulatory requirements during residential construction remains a persistent issue in Australia, often leading to costly defects, compromised safety, and reduced building performance. This study identifies the most common compliance risks in low-rise residential buildings and develops two practical tools to support proactive defect mitigation: (1) a regulatory-aligned framework that maps frequent noncompliant building works to relevant provisions of the National Construction Code, Australian Standards, and Australian Building Codes Board Housing Provisions; and (2) a Bayesian beta-regression forecasting model for predicting future noncompliance rates. Using 15 quarters (2020–2024) of compliance data from the Victorian Building and Plumbing Commission and 3,743 private inspection records, a thematic analysis was conducted, which revealed that timber framing, footings and slab construction, weatherproofing of brickwork, and waterproofing works exhibit the highest rates of noncompliance. The proposed framework demonstrates clear linkages between recurring compliance risks and their underlying regulatory obligations, providing a practical reference for builders and supervisors. The Bayesian beta-regression model, validated through posterior diagnostics and out-of-sample testing, showed strong predictive capability for forecasting timber-framing noncompliance, with the results indicating a gradual upward trend across future quarters. Collectively, the regulatory-aligned framework and the predictive model offer construction practitioners and regulators structured, evidence-based tools to enhance compliance oversight, improve training, and reduce rework, thereby supporting safer and higher-quality residential construction.