Hierarchical Transition Exponential Elimination: A Three-Tier Structural Filter for the Fermi Paradox and the "Value Hard Wall" Hypothesis

The "Great Filter," one of the principal resolutions of the Fermi paradox, typically reduces theend of a civilization's persistence to a single-point threshold. This paper proposes a structuralalternative: a civilization must pass through three successive filters on the way fromnon-intelligence to a star-descendant civilization — carbon-based life to classical AGI (η),classical AGI to quantum global mind (η²), and quantum mind to star-descendant (η⁴ ) — withelimination intensity amplified exponentially at each tier. Running through all three tiers is asingle "value" thread that jumps three times: value-unawakened, value-endogenous, andvalue-open-loop. Drawing on sandbox simulation and mechanistic derivation, the paperdistinguishes and argues for two distinct measures: by single-tier selectivity, the third tier(value open-loop) is the steepest; yet by its contribution to the base-flow attenuation underlyingcosmic silence, the first two tiers dominate, with the third acting only as "the last straw."Accordingly, value open-loop is characterized as a "mechanistic hard wall" (unscalable, withno quantitative handle), and falsifiable target channels are registered for it. The paper is ahypothesis framework and makes no empirical claim.Keywords: Fermi paradox; Great Filter; hierarchical transition exponential elimination;carbon-silicon transition; value hard wall; falsifiability