Towards Policy Synergy and a Just Industrial Transition in China through Integrated Scenario Assessment of Carbon Lock In and Stakeholder Alignment

Abstract Industrial decarbonisation requires low-carbon technologies and the capacity to implement them under persistent structural constraints. This study develops an integrated scenario framework for China that connects technological, asset, institutional and network lock-in with stakeholder alignment and just-transition considerations. A two-round Delphi consultation with 15 experts informed indicator assessment and scenario design. Five scenarios compare business as usual, policy enhancement, technological change, collaborative governance and an integrated package over 2020–2050. Historical calibration of aggregate industrial energy demand over 2010–2020 gives \(\:{R}^{2}=0.93\) and a mean absolute percentage error of 6.2%. Against the 2020 direct-emissions baseline of 1,000 Mt CO₂ for the selected manufacturing sectors, the integrated scenario reaches 410 Mt CO₂ in 2050, a 59.00% reduction. It exceeds the three narrower scenarios by 17.45–39.40 percentage points and raises the Power Alignment Index from 0.4800 to 0.7730. Energy and steel have the highest weighted lock-in scores. Analytical derivation and exact numerical verification over 9,251 feasible settings per capacity response identify positive synergy when deployment and implementation improve together under multiplicative or binding-bottleneck conditions. A support-threshold mechanism identifies additional actor backing from joint measures. The findings show how integrated policy can improve emissions outcomes and implementation capacity by addressing complementary constraints. Worker protection, local adjustment and participation provide additional criteria for evaluating a just industrial transition.