Enrollment, Graduation, and Dropout Trends in Nepalese Higher Education: A Mathematical and Statistical Analysis

Rapid enrolment growth in Nepalese higher education has coincided with persistently weak graduation and completion outcomes. This study examined enrolment trends, faculty and funding capacity, pass and graduation rates, and dropout dynamics across central and provincial universities. Secondary data from University Grants Commission Nepal Education Management Information System reports, national newspapers, and peer-reviewed studies were analysed using ordinary least-squares regression and log-linear exponential growth models. A four-state absorbing Markov chain representing active enrolment, delayed or repeated study, graduation, and dropout was calibrated to Tribhuvan University’s reported aggregate pass rate of 29.3%. Enrolment increased from approximately 371,000 students in 2016/17 to over 633,000 in 2023/24. The linear model showed a strong fit (R² = 0.933), while the estimated enrolment compound annual growth rate was 7.93%, compared with 3.81% for faculty and 11.07% for government funding. The Markov model estimated a long-run dropout absorption probability of approximately 43% for first-attempt cohorts. Additional analyses characterized institutional fragmentation through the distribution of affiliated colleges by enrolment size and examined outbound student mobility, with more than 100,000 students annually obtaining No-Objection Certificates for overseas study. The findings indicate that enrolment growth has outpaced faculty expansion, while completion outcomes remain weak despite increased government funding. The study provides an integrated quantitative assessment to inform policies addressing imbalances between enrolment expansion, institutional capacity, and completion efficiency.