Economic Globalization and Right-wing Populism in 21st-Century Germany

The prevalence of right-wing populism has risen dramatically in the West in recent decades. Some scholars argue that globalization-induced economic insecurity is a primary driver of right-wing populism, while others believe that voters' perceptions of globalization and related political phenomena are the drivers of right-wing populism. This thesis examines both paths together, the objective and subjective influences of globalization, to determine how, or if, economic globalization has fueled the recent rise in right wing populist voting behavior in Germany. My analysis uses objective measures of economic globalization, including trade, capital flows, and migration, along with perceptual views of globalization and related political beliefs, to consider if and how globalization has affected the rise of right-wing populism in Germany. The analysis finds that globalization-induced economic insecurity is not a serious driver of AfD vote share, while broad measures of economic globalization correlate to some degree with right-wing populist voting behavior, with exports and FDI net outflows as the strongest predictors. However, the perceived importance of migration, and net migration itself, was found to be a better predictor of right-wing populist voting behavior than other elements of economic globalization like trade and FDI. These results illustrate how studying economic and perceptual data in combination can add additional depth to results.