The U.S.-China Strategic Stalemate in the “Trump 2.0” Era

Following Trump’s return to office, new developments have emerged in U.S.-China relations. Previous research often uses the term “strategic competition” to characterize bilateral relations since 2017. However, there has been a lack of systematic discussion regarding the intertwined state of competition and stalemate during Trump’s second term, as well as the potential for this dynamic to evolve into strategic stability. Building on a review of recent research, this research insists that U.S.-China relations during the “Trump 2.0” era are entering a phase of comprehensive and long-term strategic stalemate. This phase stems from three sources. Firstly, there is a structural contradiction between the United States’ efforts to maintain its hegemony and its strategic retrenchment. Secondly, the international order is transitioning toward a “dual-core, multipolar” structure. Thirdly, domestic political polarization in the United States is transmitted to foreign policy through a mechanism of “securitization.” Strategic stalemate is unfolding simultaneously across three dimensions: trade, technology, and geopolitical security; as well as institutional rules. It manifests as a complex state characterized by localized “decoupling,” “negotiating while clashing” on most issues, and a situation where the risk of conflict “largely does not spill over.” Diplomatic engagement between the two heads of state has established a new framework for a “constructive strategic stability relationship between China and the United States.” which provides a political framework for moving beyond the current stalemate. Nevertheless, whether this framework proves effective depends on whether both sides can translate principled consensus into sustainable institutional arrangements. Maintaining strategic patience, clarifying the boundaries of competition, and expanding selective cooperation in low-sensitivity areas constitute China’s fundamental approach to navigating this phase of strategic stalemate.