Early Assessment in First-Year Transition: Predictor of Success or Catalyst for Intervention?

Early assessment (EA) is a key component of learning, providing students with opportunities to receive feedback, clarify expectations, and build confidence. This is particularly important for first-year students transitioning to university. This study considers whether EA performance is a reliable predictor of future performance, and whether this depends on student group or EA format. Results indicate that for high-performing students, EA is a reliable predictor of future success; however, other groups have mixed results. The ability of EA to predict future performance also depends on EA format, particularly for lower-performing groups. Where EA is not a reliable predictor of future performance, we suggest that it instead, in some cases, serves as a useful catalyst, leading to improved performance. These findings highlight the importance of EA, and the careful consideration required when determining EA format and associated support strategies, to effectively scaffold student success, particularly for lower-performing and at-risk students.