The Price of Incompetence: Electoral Punishment and the Heating Transition

How does policy mismanagement affect electoral support for Green parties leading the energy transition? We argue that perceived governing incompetence drives electoral punishment against these parties. We test this argument using high-frequency survey and census data in a difference-in-differences design that leverages the unexpected 2023 leak of Germany's Building Energy Act—a proposal banning new carbon-based heating systems that led to a fumbled policy rollout. We find that support for the Greens declined most in counties with a higher prevalence of carbon-based heating systems. Using individual-level panel data, we show this punishment came from marginal supporters who, perceiving the Greens as incompetent, switched their allegiance. Our findings suggest that poor governance, beyond its material costs, can undermine the green agenda by shifting voters' priorities toward a party's competence.