A three-stage roadmap and key issue outlook for China’s hydrogen energy industry toward 2060

Abstract China has recently elevated hydrogen energy to a strategic priority within its national energy security framework. As policy support, technology maturation, and regulatory integration advance, the sector is moving from preliminary demonstration toward more systematic deployment. This study develops a three-stage roadmap for China’s hydrogen energy industry toward 2060 by integrating techno-economic modeling, scenario analysis, and policy-target cross-checking. The results suggest a staged evolution within the broader energy system: scenario-specific enablement through 2030, system regulation and cross-sector integration during 2030−2040, and a possible foundational energy-carrier role by 2060. In the current phase, hydrogen deployment is constrained by high renewable-hydrogen costs, incomplete safety regulation, and system-compatibility barriers; its role therefore remains concentrated in selected industrial and mobility applications. In the mid-term phase, declining renewable-hydrogen costs and maturing storage and transportation networks could allow hydrogen to support long-duration energy storage, renewable-power integration, and industrial decarbonization. In the long term, hydrogen may form a dual-carrier energy architecture with electricity, provided that technology, safety governance, infrastructure, and standards continue to mature. The proposed roadmap offers a structured reference for hydrogen-related policy planning, infrastructure investment, and future research under China’s carbon-neutrality transition.