Rural E-Commerce and Multi-Scale Spatial Reorganization: Within-County Concentration and Intercounty Differentiation in China

Rural e-commerce has expanded market access and economic opportunities in rural areas, yet its implications for the spatial organization of economic activity remain less understood. This study examines whether China’s Comprehensive Demonstration Program for E-Commerce in Rural Areas reshapes economic activity within counties and across counties within the same prefecture-level city. Using county-level panel data from 2011 to 2024, we combine nighttime-light and impervious-surface data to construct measures of within-county spatial concentration (WSC) and city-relative gap (CRG), and exploit the staggered policy rollout in a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that policy implementation significantly increases within-county concentration and is associated with greater differentiation from contemporaneous same-city peers, with the baseline estimates equivalent to approximately 1.5% and 4.4% of their respective sample means. Support is stronger for WSC, although its magnitude is sensitive to province-by-year adjustment; the CRG evidence is weaker and estimator-sensitive. Further analyses show that pre-existing core locations strengthen their relative position after policy implementation, while county-relative differentiation responds more strongly at lower levels of initial market density. Overall, the results show that market integration and spatial convergence are distinct dimensions of rural digital development, implying that rural e-commerce policies should be assessed not only by aggregate gains but also by the spatial distribution of economic activity and the differing needs of counties with different market foundations.