Reconnaissance Under Pressure: Emotion, Perception and Deterrence in Red Team Assessments of UK National Infrastructure

This study aims to understand how hostiles conduct reconnaissance and examine sources of emotional intensity during the hostile reconnaissance process. We employ quantitative and qualitative analyses of seven detailed reports conducted across different sites to understand how the denial of necessary information and the fear of detection impacts upon feelings, thoughts and behaviour. The reports contain large narrative-style elaborations perceptions of different security features and numerical scores for the degree to which these features impacted the ‘friendly hostile’ in terms of disrupting activity, denying information, fear of detection and deterrence. We find that emotional pressure is present from the beginning and is often later exacerbated by experiences once on site. Emotional pressure is susceptible to external influence; it is malleable and can increase or decrease depending upon experience and perceptions at the site. Various security features lead to spikes in emotional intensity. The ability to model and analyse reconnaissance behaviour through red teaming exercises offers significant value for both security practitioners and decision-makers seeking to strengthen preventive and defensive capabilities.