The 3.8σ Is an Accounting Choice: I Re-Ran a Transitional Dark Energy Paper's Own Δχ² Ledger Under Its Three Possible Accountings, and Its Headline Preference Moved by 1.7σ

Prices Queue-2 item Q2-13, arXiv:2502.12667 (Keeley, Abazajian, Kaplinghat & Shafieloo, transitional dark energy preference from DESI + Planck + DES/Pantheon+), on its verified abstract claim, the TSI store record, and the full text. The load-bearing assumed step is the accounting that converts the paper's printed Delta-chi2 ledger (29.8 for DES, split 17.8 SN + 12.0 BAO; 19.2 for PP) into a sigma: the headline 3.8 sigma is the smallest of three standard accountings of the same numbers (naive sqrt: 5.46; Wilks k=4: 4.40; posterior fraction: 3.8 as printed), a 1.7-2.0 sigma convention spread. No single dataset reaches 2 sigma, and the paper's own appendices move the headline to 3.1 (one BAO point dropped), 3.0 (SDSS swap) and below 2 (z<0.1 supernovae removed). The growth-rate signature is the paper's eq. (10) identity re-expressing the fitted delta-H under assumed GR, at 1-2% against 3% forecast errors. DERIVED-INDEPENDENT. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-11-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23937608
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
Type
preprint
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preprint

The 3.8σ Is an Accounting Choice: I Re-Ran a Transitional Dark Energy Paper's Own Δχ² Ledger Under Its Three Possible Accountings, and Its Headline Preference Moved by 1.7σ

William Alexander Aldred
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
preprint

The 3.8σ Is an Accounting Choice: I Re-Ran a Transitional Dark Energy Paper's Own Δχ² Ledger Under Its Three Possible Accountings, and Its Headline Preference Moved by 1.7σ

William Alexander Aldred
preprint en

Abstract

Prices Queue-2 item Q2-13, arXiv:2502.12667 (Keeley, Abazajian, Kaplinghat & Shafieloo, transitional dark energy preference from DESI + Planck + DES/Pantheon+), on its verified abstract claim, the TSI store record, and the full text. The load-bearing assumed step is the accounting that converts the paper's printed Delta-chi2 ledger (29.8 for DES, split 17.8 SN + 12.0 BAO; 19.2 for PP) into a sigma: the headline 3.8 sigma is the smallest of three standard accountings of the same numbers (naive sqrt: 5.46; Wilks k=4: 4.40; posterior fraction: 3.8 as printed), a 1.7-2.0 sigma convention spread. No single dataset reaches 2 sigma, and the paper's own appendices move the headline to 3.1 (one BAO point dropped), 3.0 (SDSS swap) and below 2 (z<0.1 supernovae removed). The growth-rate signature is the paper's eq. (10) identity re-expressing the fitted delta-H under assumed GR, at 1-2% against 3% forecast errors. DERIVED-INDEPENDENT. Quantum gravity NOT SOLVED; vacuum catastrophe NOT SOLVED.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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