Trust, Uncertainty, and the Use of Groundwater Models in the Southern High Plains Aquifer ( USA )

Abstract Scientific data and tools are increasingly developed to support evidence‐based environmental management decisions. However, they are not always used by lay stakeholders (i.e., non‐scientist policy actors and agricultural producers) to support decisions. Scientific tools such as groundwater models provide a simplified representation of physical systems but can be highly technical and results include a level of uncertainty. A primary influence on someone's evaluation and use of scientific information is their trust in science and scientists. In this article, we explore the role that trust in groundwater models and the modelers who create them plays in model evaluation and use. We draw on 22 interviews with agricultural producers, water policy actors and modelers who are affected by or work with a numerical groundwater flow model developed for the Equus Beds Groundwater Management District in Kansas, USA. We compare different user groups' perceptions of model accuracy, salience and uncertainty and then assess key dimensions of perceived modeler trustworthiness, specifically, their ability, integrity and benevolence. We find an overall high level of trust among experienced water policy actors and agricultural producers in both models and modelers, despite acknowledgement of model uncertainty. Agricultural producers' perceptions of modelers are shaped by concerns about their perceived integrity, followed by benevolence, while for water policy actors, ability and integrity are primary concerns. Our findings suggest that modelers should be aware of the information needs and expectations of model users to increase model usability. Modelers should also be transparent and clearly communicate uncertainties and limitations in model outputs to allow model users to weigh potential implications themselves.