Shaping regional futures in times of sustainability transitions: Territorial capital, transformative capacity and prosilience

Sustainability transitions are fundamentally reshaping regional and local economic development trajectories by challenging cities and regions to not only adapt to external shocks but also actively shape their futures. This study connects three emerging approaches of regional and urban development – territorial capital, transformative capacity and prosilience – to better understand how cities and regions may position themselves as agents of, as well as arenas for, sustainability transitions. In this study, territorial capital is understood as comprising both the hard and soft elements of the economic and social ‘landscape’, which significantly affect the way regional and urban economies are shaped, as well as the structural substrate from which transformative capacity is cultivated. Transformative capacity is defined here as the dynamic competences through which regional and local actors can change current socio-economic systems towards more sustainable configurations, as well as is regarded as a unique perspective of how regional and local development institutions map their future in different ‘frontiers’ to fit the changing terrain of the economic and social ‘landscape’. In this study, prosilience captures the normative horizon towards which the dynamic interaction of territorial capital and transformative capacity is directed. Drawing on existing research on territorial capital, transformative capacity and prosilience, the study contributes to policy practice by articulating how regional and local development institutions can cultivate the combinatorial constituents of territorial capital and transformative capacity to shape regional futures rather than merely react to external disturbances. Through this lens, shaping regional and local economic development trajectories is perceived as a generative and path-shaping process rather than a reactive adjustment to exogenous pressures. The study contributes to current debates in regional studies and sustainability science by offering a nuanced understanding of how cities and regions can move beyond resilience towards proactive future-making, with implications for place-based development strategies and sustainability-oriented regional policy.