Systemic barriers to circular economy adoption in UAE construction: Bayesian network evidence and a transition framework

Circular economy (CE) adoption in construction is increasingly promoted as a pathway for reducing construction and demolition waste (CDW), preserving material value, and improving resource efficiency. Yet CE implementation remains difficult because the barriers constraining circular construction are rarely isolated. They interact through procurement practices, stakeholder fragmentation, regulatory conditions, digital readiness, secondary-material markets, and investment behavior. Unlike conventional barrier-ranking studies that treat implementation barriers as independent obstacles, this study examines their probabilistic interdependencies in the UAE construction industry using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). A literature-based index of 25 barriers was developed across six dimensions: technological, economic, regulatory, organizational, infrastructure, and behavioral barriers. The index was validated by eight experts and assessed through survey responses from 60 UAE construction professionals. The analysis compares conventional independence-based ranking with an interdependence-based Network Propagation Impact (NPI) ranking. The findings show that complexity in shifting to CE (NPI = 0.1245), fragmentation of the building construction industry (NPI = 0.1212), and prioritization of cost and time (NPI = 0.1071) are the most systemically influential barriers. The results demonstrate that perceived severity and systemic influence are not equivalent, as barriers ranked moderately under direct assessment can become critical when their network propagation effects are considered. Building on these findings, the study develops an integrated CE transition framework linking foundational barrier domains, dominant propagation barriers, intervention levers, and expected outcomes. The study contributes by reframing CE implementation as a socio-technical transition challenge and by showing how BBN-based analysis can support more strategic prioritization of circular construction interventions in the UAE.