Are Anthropogenic Factors Altering Distribution of Himalayan Black Bears in Nepal?

Human activities are fragmenting Himalayan black bear (HBB) habitat but may also create benefits such as increased resource availability. To understand these contrasting effects, we explored the relationship between HBBs and humans by constructing species distribution models for HBBs in Nepal. Specifically, we developed two distribution models using MaxEnt—one that assumed no human alterations of the landscape (Natural Environment model) and the other that included components of human activity (Anthropogenic Environment model). The models were based on a total of 475 presence records and potential environmental variables included bioclimatic and anthropogenic factors. Estimated distributions from the two models were then overlaid onto Nepal's Land Use and Land Cover map and categorized by land cover type (e.g., forest, grassland, anthropogenic) to analyze the net change between HBB distribution and land use patterns. The Natural and Anthropogenic environment distribution models predicted similar extents of suitable range for HBBs, with the natural distribution being slightly larger (+21,021 km²). We evaluated natural forests as highly suitable habitats under both models, while areas modified by human activity exhibited lower but still notable levels of suitability. Our findings indicate that current levels of anthropogenic habitat alteration in Nepal have a near net-neutral effect on the overall distribution of HBBs. However, the degree of anthropogenic development in Nepal’s mid-altitudes (that make up the bulk of the HBB habitat) is relatively low in intensity, consisting almost entirely of pervious surfaces (e.g. agricultural areas and villages with little to no pavement). Thus, it could be that more intense anthropogenic development (like paved areas) would equate to habitat destruction for HBBs. Despite the compensation some bears may reap through crops and livestock raiding, conservation activities to address human-HBB interactions and safeguard vital habitat for the species are necessary. KEYWORDS: Himalayan Black Bear, species distribution, MaxEnt, anthropogenic influences