Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Changes in Rainfall and Temperature of Baringo County from 1994-2024

Climate change is reshaping the ecological foundations of pastoralism in the drylands of Africa, where livelihoods depend heavily on seasonal rainfall. In Baringo County in Kenya, changing climatic conditions are increasingly altering rangeland systems that sustain pastoral livelihoods. However, despite growing evidence of climate variability and change in Kenya, there is limited spatially and temporally disaggregated evidence of how rainfall and temperature patterns are changing across Baringo County. Understanding the spatial-temporal dynamics of climate variables is essential in fragile environments such as ASALs, where further changes in temperature and rainfall can significantly affect livelihoods and productivity. This study was therefore undertaken in order to analyse the spatial-temporal changes in rainfall and temperature of Baringo County from 1994-2024. The study was guided by the concept of Climate Variability and Climate Change, which recognises that climate variables vary across time and space and are influenced by both natural processes and human activities. The study utilised a convergent mixed-methods approach that integrated geospatial analysis with structured household surveys. The survey targeted pastoralist household heads, with a sample of 383 respondents determined using the Krejcie and Morgan formula. Data was collected using GIS, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Climate trends were analysed using TerraClimate data and Sen's slope estimator. Questionnaire data were analysed using descriptive statistics, whereas qualitative data were analysed thematically. The findings revealed widespread warming, highly variable rainfall, and declining seasonal reliability across Baringo County. Community perceptions closely matched instrumental records, with 88.0% of respondents reporting changes in rainfall patterns. The study concludes that climate change is undermining the ecological foundations of pastoralism in Baringo County and recommends integrated land use planning and investment in climate-resilient water infrastructure.