Strategic Decision-Making for Innovation in Emerging Organisations: An Adaptive Framework for VUCA Environments

Strategic decision-making and innovation are critical to the competitiveness of emerging organisations operating in volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. This paper examines how emerging organisations can make adaptive strategic decisions while pursuing innovation under conditions of environmental uncertainty. Using O’mari Zimbabwe, a corporate-backed financial technology (fintech) venture of Old Mutual Digital Services, the paper aims to develop an adaptive strategic decision-making framework for innovation in a VUCA environment. The study adopts a qualitative case-study and documentary research design, drawing on publicly available information on O’mari and Zimbabwe’s fintech environment. The analysis applies PESTEL, SWOT, Porter’s Five Forces, stakeholder analysis, and the VUCA framework. The theoretical foundation integrates the resource-based view, dynamic capabilities, organisational ambidexterity, contingency theory, effectuation, bounded rationality, institutional theory, and disruptive innovation. Findings indicate that O’mari’s innovation and competitive advantage depend not only on Old Mutual’s brand, resources, regulatory expertise and institutional legitimacy, but also on its capacity to reconfigure these resources, experiment responsibly, build ecosystem partnerships, strengthen customer trust and continuously learn from environmental change. The paper develops the Adaptive Inclusive Finance Decision Cycle (AIFDC), comprising seven interconnected stages: sensing, problem framing, resource-based option selection, controlled experimentation, trust and regulatory gating, modular scaling, and learning and resource reallocation. The paper concludes that strategic decision-making in emerging organisations under VUCA conditions should be adaptive, iterative, evidence-driven, and innovation-oriented rather than dependent on rigid long-term planning. It recommends strengthening strategic intelligence, controlled experimentation, cybersecurity and responsible data governance, ecosystem partnerships, inclusive distribution, and balanced performance measurement to enhance innovation and competitive advantage.